INTERACTIVE EXPERIMENT / FEEDBACK & DELAY
The delay & supply-line lab
An empty shelf is visible. The orders already on their way are easier to overlook.
Teaching simulation · not a forecastSTRUCTURE / WEEK 0
UNDER THE SURFACE
The rules are part
of the result.
Change the settings, inspect the trajectory, and export the values to examine them yourself.
Model & assumptions
Order rate = max(0, demand + gain × [100 − perceived net stock + pipeline adjustment])100 weeks, in 0.25-week steps. Demand steps from 20 to 30 units/week at week 10. The warehouse starts at 100 units; the delivery queue is initialized at steady demand. Net stock is on-hand inventory minus backlog. Perceived net stock follows a first-order reporting lag. When enabled, the pipeline adjustment is desired pipeline (current demand × delivery delay) minus outstanding orders. Orders arrive after a fixed delay. Unsatisfied demand becomes backlog and is later filled; no demand disappears at a zero-stock clamp. This is one decision rule, not a universal bullwhip model. No universal damping thresholds are assumed.