++++A’s actionB’s perceived threatB’s actionA’s perceived threat
Simplified causal sketch. + means a same-direction influence; − means an opposite-direction influence, other things equal. An arrow proposes a relationship to investigate.

The mechanism

Each participant interprets the other’s action as a reason to intensify its own. The responses form a reinforcing loop even when each actor describes its behavior as corrective or defensive. The result depends on limits, information and what the parties care about.

An everyday version

Imagine two organizations increasing promotional spending to preserve their relative visibility. Each increase changes the other’s benchmark. Total effort can rise even if the relative position barely moves. This is a hypothetical mechanism, not a claim that all competition has this outcome.

What to look for

Look for contingent responses: does A’s move predict B’s next move, and vice versa? Distinguish mutual response from independent reactions to a shared external change. Identify the metric that makes one side’s gain feel like the other’s loss.

Where could you intervene?

Explore credible communication, different success measures or verifiable limits. Any change must account for incentives and the risk of unilateral restraint.

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