The mechanism
Past performance influences future resource allocation, and resources influence performance. That loop can amplify an initial difference. Outcomes then reflect both ability and the history of opportunities. A complete analysis should include how the second contender’s results affect allocation, too.
An everyday version
Imagine two new projects. One has a lucky early result and receives more staff and attention. Its later lead may partly reflect that support. Looking only at later output cannot isolate the original quality of either project.
What to look for
Document initial conditions and allocation decisions. Compare outcomes relative to resources and opportunity. Look for a mechanism linking the initial result to later access, rather than assuming that every inequality has the same origin.
Where could you intervene?
Consider protected experiments, multiple evaluation windows and explicit allocation criteria. Test whether performance differences persist under comparable opportunities.
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